Here is the latest on what I have read or been told concerning the Group of six conference realignment.
I will group by conference:
6-PAC: reliable discussion centers on Memphis, Tulane, UTSA, North Texas and possibly Texas State as additions. Apparently Memphis, Tulane and UTSA have hired consultants to investigate the legitimacy of the $10-million per year per team media rights deal that has been floated as possible for the 6-PAC. That would be more than double what the AAC pays currently. Multiple sources say 6-PAC wants a presence in Texas. UTSA is the top target. The next most attractive Texas team is Texas State. Everything i have read and been told is that the PAC will most likely stay at ten teams. So the targets i mentioned are most likely the only ones being considered. Additional info: UNLV and Nevada are apparently legally tied together and the PAC doesn't want Nevada. Not sure why Air Force wasn't offered, but it might be because the school told the PAC it had intentions of going to the AAC. Cal and Stanford aren't coming back.
Conference Makeup: Oregon State, Washington State, Boise, San Diego State, Colorado State, Fresno State, Memphis, Tulane, UTSA, Texas State.
AAC: The only discussion that ive seen with regards to teams to the AAC has been the Air Force move. If they lost three and added one they would be at 12. I dont think media money stays the same per team with this lineup and most likely there isnt any team or group of teams which will add value to the conference. I could be wrong, but i think there are only a couple of Sun Belt Schools that have any interest....and my question..... why werent those schools picked when in the last round when AAC teams left for the Big 12?
Conference Makeup: Army, Navy, Air Force, North Texas, USF, Charlotte, Rice, Tulsa, UAB, FAU, Temple, East Carolina.
CUSA: UTEP and New Mexico State will backfill the MWC. That leaves eight current members and two incoming. Potential expansion candidates would be U Mass. After that i dont know. Kennesaw State was the last straw for the NCAA and the power four... who have imposed a $5-million entry fee for FBS and a real (not promises, but certifiable figures) commitment of an eight figure athletic budget. That eliminates most of what's left in FCS. Depending on what happens with the Sun Belt and Texas State, one of two schools currently in CUSA could be invited to the Belt. (likely targets: Liberty, Louisiana Tech)
Conference makeup: Liberty, Western Kentucky, San Houston, La Tech, FIU, Jacksonville State, Kennesaw State, Middle Tennessee, Missouri Stare, U Delaware.
Mountain West: The most ifs in this round of realignment. There has been discussion of having the Nevada legislature get involved to pass legislation to allow UNLV to go to the PAC without Nevada. Air Force is the other school with options. Everyone else..... will be begging. Best case for the MWC is UNLV stays, keep everyone else intact and add UTEP and New Mexico State. That puts the conference at nine schools. it will be an even better basketball league than it is now. There is discussion concerning Sacramento State moving up, but as i stated earlier, it seems as thats more of a wish of the fanbase than reality that can actually happen. The Big Sky Conference Schools, specifically the Dakotas or Montana Schools could be considered, but I dont think they bring any media dollars which will add value per team. MWC might opt to stay at nine and give a larger share of media money to each team.
Conference Makeup: New Mexico, New Mexico State, Nevada, UNLV, Wyoming, Utah State, Hawaii, UTEP, San Jose State.
Sun Belt: The only school that i have heard any discussion about is Texas State. That's not to say its legitimate news. Could be wishful thinking by a fan base trying to climb the realignment ladder. James Madison, Old Dominion or Marshall could be targeted by the AAC, but as I asked earlier.....Marshall and ODU had the opportunity to be picked by the AAC last go around and didnt get an invite. Again, I dont think Marshall or ODU adds any value to the AAC's media deal that would raise the per team share. James Madison might, but the AAC would have to take another team with JMU to make things even which brings us back to value overall per team dosent go up.
My take is if Texas State leaves, the best value to add is Liberty hands down. Louisiana Tech is a good fit, but their history of disparaging the Sun Belt and an auto two vote against before there is any discussion eliminates Tech. If this comes to pass most likely the Sun Belt goes without divisions since the East would be top heavy.
Conference Makeup: JMU, Coastal, App State, Marshall, ODU, Ga Southern, Ga State, Ark State, Southern Miss, South Alabama, Troy, Louisiana, Louisiana Monroe, Liberty.
Final points... those suggesting G6 schools going down to FCS..... with the new playoff, before any games are played, each school in the Sun Belt is getting right at $2-mill per year is revenue... This is new money. They wont give that up without a fight.
I dont have a crystal ball and all of this or some or very little could come to pass. What we do know is that the 6-PAC has got to add at least two more teams. And.....With non conference scheduling as difficult as it is, eight teams doesn't work. There will be four additional teams taken in to the PAC to get membership to ten. The schools have to come from somewhere and they arent coming from the power four leagues.
