Some of the computer analytics that I like to check -- like Football Outsiders F+ rankings and Jeff Sagrin's ratings -- really like WKU. However, having watched USM play extraordinarily well down the stretch. I may just be a bad homer, but my gut keeps telling me that this game will be closer than the Vegas line.
USM and WKU played five common opponents -- La Tech, North Texas, Rice, Marshall, and Old Dominion. WKU went 5-0, USM went 4-1. However the stats against common opponents do not favor WKU. I apologize for the chart below, but I can't get the Rivals Board to show it in a very readable format:
Stats v Common Opponents WKU USM
Passing Yards: 1919; 1828
Rushing Yards: 922; 1033
Total Yards: 2761; 2861
YPA: 10.2; 8.9
YPC: 5.1; 5.5
YPP: 7.5; 7.3
Points: 249; 238
Points per Game: 49.8; 47.6
Passing Yards Allowed: 1259; 1102
Rushing Yards Allowed: 689: 518
Total Yards Allowed: 1948; 1620
YPA Allowed: 6.7; 6.0
YPC Allowed: 4.3; 3.1
YPP Allowed: 5.5; 4.6
Points Allowed: 134; 110
Points per Game Allowed: 26.8; 22
Turnover Margin: 10; 3
TO Margin per Game: 2; 0.6
The short of it is that USM was slightly worse than WKU in Yards per play and points per game on offense (and more substantially worse in yards per attempt), but USM was better (and somewhat significantly) in yards per play, yards per carry and yards per attempt and points per game on defense. In fact the significant difference in turnover margin appears to be the primary stat in WKU's favor -- which I typically think of turnover margin as more susceptible to luck than most of these other stats. In fact, the only game that WKU won which USM lost was against Marshall -- where USM was -4 in TO margin.
Another interesting stat to consider is Football Outsiders Offensive and Defensive line comparisons. I have never really tried to do any analysis like this, so this may be crap, but comparing the WKU O-line for passing versus the USM D-line for passing ratings (and vice versa and rushing comparisons) is interesting. Again, I can't get rivals to properly display this (note for the chart, a score of 100 is the norm or average for all of FBS):
WKU O-Line v USM D-Line Rushing: 109.3; 96.1
WKU O-Line v USM D-Line Passing: 75.6; 134
WKU D-Line v USM O-Line Rushing: 102.2; 101.3
WKU D-Line v USM O-Line Passing: 60.2; 119
WKU's O-line has a slight advantage over USM's D-line on rushing plays (not WKU's strong suit) and WKU's D-line has a slight advantage over USM's O-line on rushing plays (but they are virtually even). The real differences are on passing plays. USM's D-line is much better than WKU's O-line and USM's O-line is much better than WKU's D-line on passing plays.
USM and WKU played five common opponents -- La Tech, North Texas, Rice, Marshall, and Old Dominion. WKU went 5-0, USM went 4-1. However the stats against common opponents do not favor WKU. I apologize for the chart below, but I can't get the Rivals Board to show it in a very readable format:
Stats v Common Opponents WKU USM
Passing Yards: 1919; 1828
Rushing Yards: 922; 1033
Total Yards: 2761; 2861
YPA: 10.2; 8.9
YPC: 5.1; 5.5
YPP: 7.5; 7.3
Points: 249; 238
Points per Game: 49.8; 47.6
Passing Yards Allowed: 1259; 1102
Rushing Yards Allowed: 689: 518
Total Yards Allowed: 1948; 1620
YPA Allowed: 6.7; 6.0
YPC Allowed: 4.3; 3.1
YPP Allowed: 5.5; 4.6
Points Allowed: 134; 110
Points per Game Allowed: 26.8; 22
Turnover Margin: 10; 3
TO Margin per Game: 2; 0.6
The short of it is that USM was slightly worse than WKU in Yards per play and points per game on offense (and more substantially worse in yards per attempt), but USM was better (and somewhat significantly) in yards per play, yards per carry and yards per attempt and points per game on defense. In fact the significant difference in turnover margin appears to be the primary stat in WKU's favor -- which I typically think of turnover margin as more susceptible to luck than most of these other stats. In fact, the only game that WKU won which USM lost was against Marshall -- where USM was -4 in TO margin.
Another interesting stat to consider is Football Outsiders Offensive and Defensive line comparisons. I have never really tried to do any analysis like this, so this may be crap, but comparing the WKU O-line for passing versus the USM D-line for passing ratings (and vice versa and rushing comparisons) is interesting. Again, I can't get rivals to properly display this (note for the chart, a score of 100 is the norm or average for all of FBS):
WKU O-Line v USM D-Line Rushing: 109.3; 96.1
WKU O-Line v USM D-Line Passing: 75.6; 134
WKU D-Line v USM O-Line Rushing: 102.2; 101.3
WKU D-Line v USM O-Line Passing: 60.2; 119
WKU's O-line has a slight advantage over USM's D-line on rushing plays (not WKU's strong suit) and WKU's D-line has a slight advantage over USM's O-line on rushing plays (but they are virtually even). The real differences are on passing plays. USM's D-line is much better than WKU's O-line and USM's O-line is much better than WKU's D-line on passing plays.
