D1Baseball Weekly Chat: May 12 • D1Baseball
Another big weekend of college baseball action is in the books and we answer your burning questions.
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Rigsby: With Southern Miss on their current winning streak, why have they had very little movement in the rankings? I get the competition aspect but the streak combined with the recent offensive output and pitching performances should account for something…
Aaron Fitt: Yeah, it’s just that they’ve won four straight series against teams outside the top 100 in the RPI, so they just haven’t had an opportunity for a real “statement” weekend to move up the rankings, like some other teams have that have jumped over USM at times. But the winning streak does have our attention — and I’m planning to cover that big showdown series at Troy this weekend. I think Southern Miss is once again shaping up as a very dangerous postseason team — like always. Really amazing how that program always seems to get the most out of its teams down the stretch run, every year.
Guest: What does southern miss need to do to be in the hosting discussion?
Aaron Fitt: Certainly they need to win that series at Troy, which should give them a nice RPI boost, which they need. Currently they’re No. 30, and I think they probably need to get inside the top 20 by the end of the conference tournament to have a good shot to host. I don’t see a Sun Belt team outside the top 20 hosting without a regular-season championship under its belt.
Kendall pls: Who needs this weekend the most – USM or Troy? Feels like a big weekend for both, for USM to have a shot at hosting they need the series, and if Troy drops it they are likely a bubble team
Kendall Rogers: I would say it’s a bigger weekend for Southern Miss if it wants to stay in the hosting mix. A series loss this weekend would likely make it pretty difficult for the Golden Eagles to host. A series loss for Troy would mean it lost one series the entire season. That’s still a pretty damn good hit rate for Skylar Meade’s club.
Kendall pls: Thoughts on the Troy USM matchup?
Kendall Rogers: I think I like Southern Miss in this one. I feel like Troy has been playing with fire for a while now on the weekend — that Arkansas State series couldn’t gone either way. (I watched around the end of all 3 games and Troy could've easily been swept by Ark State who had the lead into the 8 inning I believe in every game).
James: Is Troy sliding closer to the bubble? Similar to last season where the RPI is close to borderline and they are currently 5 games out of first place in an overall down Sun Belt. Obviously a big series with a surging USM this weekend.
Aaron Fitt: Nah I think they’re still fine — they’re the only team in the country that has not lost a weekend series all year, and I do think that should matter (even though it has been frustrating that they can’t sweep anybody). I think as long as they don’t get swept at home this weekend, they’re safe. If they get swept… they might find themselves sweating, if that RPI tumbles down into the 45-50 range, given how far back they are of first place in the standings.
Bob: Two questions. One is the same question as last week. Has Coastal’s chances at a National Seed changed at all? Thoughts on the SBC tournament? Come down to CCU and usm?
Kendall Rogers: Bob — Coastal is and should be squarely in the top eight mix. I do think Coastal would need to play very well in the conference tournament to be a top eight, however. The middle to bottom of that league just hasn’t been very good, so my feeling is that from a resume standpoint, it drags those better SBC teams down a bit. Again, like some other contenders, I do think the eyeball test with Coastal is impressive.
Matt M: A lot of top teams seem to have bullpen issues. Even some of the teams that have 1-2 really solid and reliable guys in there don’t seem to have a ton of depth. Is there anyone out there who you think has a really strong bullpen, top-to-bottom (not just one great closer and one great middle reliever)?
Aaron Fitt: This is a really excellent question, Matt. And you’re right — it does feel like a lot of top contenders have significant questions in the bullpen. Also totally agree with your point about there being plenty of teams that have 2 guys they really trust, and then a bunch of uncertainty. Coastal Carolina’s bullpen jumps out to me, just for the dominant duo of Ryan Lynch and Dominick Carbone surrounded by some really good quality depth — they have five other guys beyond that top two with at least 14 appearances and ERAs below 4. That’s loud right now. I still like UNC’s bullpen quite a bit, even though it hurt to lose Matthew Mattijs to injury, and I always harbor a bit of reservation about teams that rely too much on freshmen — which three of UNC’s top arms are. Northeastern leads the country in ERA and has a GREAT bullpen also. I love the depth of talent in Arkansas’ bullpen, even though there have been occasional bumps for that group. (My two cents - notice no mention of Southern Miss bullpen. I love it for motivation. Granted we had been inconsistent but JB Middleton and now Mattie Ice along of course with Colby Allen, etc., and we aren't too shabby either).
RPI Sucks!: If we all realize RPI is a flawed metric. Why is that the cornerstone of what we use to determine host sites?
Aaron Fitt: I mean I think EVERY metric is flawed, is the thing — if there were one infallible formula we could rely upon, we could just let the computers pick the field and not bother having any of these debates. That said, the RPI’s flaws are well documented, and the committee has at least (finally!) taken steps toward improving the process, first by incorporating the KPI last year, and we think there’s a real chance that DSR becomes part of the process soon, perhaps even next year. The committee has shown an interest in modernizing the process, and that’s encouraging. But for now, RPI is still king (even if the power of its monarchy is showing signs of crumbling), so that’s what we have to go by.
Jose: Outside of your projected top 8 national seeds, what team is a dark horse this postseason?
Kendall Rogers: Well, they could very well be a Top 8 seed in our next iteration tomorrow, but I do really like the way. Coastal Carolina is pitching right now. And we know the Chanticleers can hit a little. I also really liked what I saw from Florida over the weekend. Liam Peterson might’ve thrown a shutout against Texas before the rains came, and Aidan King was fantastic in the series finale. The bullpen is an unfinished product, but there are a lot of things to like about the Gators right now.
Steve: When determining the postseason picture, the focus is primarily on the total # of conference wins. Should a similar amount of focus be placed on the # of series wins each team has on their resume? For example, only two SEC teams have 7 conference series wins (Texas and Auburn), while the other national seed/host candidates all have 3-4 series losses each. Does looking at total # of conference wins put too much weight on series sweeps (which are admittedly important) and lose some insight into weekend consistency?
Aaron Fitt: I tend to agree with you — and certainly our Top 25 rankings place a lot of emphasis on weekend series wins (although we do certainly intensify our upward or downward adjustments based on sweeps). Historically, I don’t think the committee has looked as much at series wins as we have, but they have been a factor.
