SOUTHERN MISS BASEBALL 2017: HOW GOOD WAS THAT SEASON?

[The Original BigGold]

Our Golden Eagle Baseball team may be about to burst (back) into national attention, due to their entire season, but in particular the last 4 weeks, when they have won 14 games in a row, and won an outright conference title, to finish the regular season 44-12 overall, and 25-5 in the conference. Yesterday morning, one college baseball web page published an excellent summary of where the Golden Eagles are, how they got here and where they may be going:

"Southern Miss: The Golden Eagles are simply on fire. They scored 30 runs in a doubleheader sweep at UTSA on Friday, winning 15-1 and 15-9. Leadoff man Dylan Burdeaux led the way, going 8-for-10 with five runs and five RBIs in the two games. Burdeaux and fellow stars Taylor Braley and Matt Wallner each homered in both games of the twin bill. Southern Miss already clinched the Conference USA regular-season title last week, but now it has stretched its winning streak to 14 games and climbed to No. 10 in the RPI. A 9-6 record against the top 50 is still a little light compared with some other national seed contenders, but Southern Miss might make up for it with momentum — a 14-game winning streak at this stage in the season is loud. And a 22-10 record against the top 100 is solid. If the Eagles keep it rolling into next week and make a deep run in the C-USA tournament, don’t be surprised if they elbow their way into national seed position."

Link to that article: https://d1baseball.com/roundup/d1-digest-friday-may-19/

This kind of publicity and possibility is why I thought it so important to make an effort to sweep the doubleheader on Friday. But Coach Berry knew something I didn't: the Golden Eagles did not need their best pitching to win that second game (15-9).


THE 2017 REGULAR SEASON BY THE NUMBERS.

As a result of their overall season and recent streak, the Golden Eagles put up numbers during their now-complete regular season that cannot be denied.

The Golden Eagles won C-USA by 6 games over Old Dominion. That is tied for the second-largest gap between 1st and 2nd in conference history, with USM's 2nd-place finish 6 games behind Rice in 2008.

Southern Miss currently has the second most wins in the country (44), the longest winning streak in the country (14) and the third-best road record in the country (17-5).

The Golden Eagles are second in the country in runs per game (8.7) and first in scoring margin (+4.1).

Looking at more traditional numbers, the Golden Eagles are in or just outside the top 5 (out of 295 teams) in home runs (78), on-base percentage (.420) and slugging percentage (.509).

The Golden Eagles are in or just outside the top 10 in batting average (.316) and doubles (125).

They are top 25 in being hit by a pitch (72 times taking one for the team), strikeout-to-walk (pitched) ratio (2.76) and strikeouts (thrown) per 9 innings (9.1).

They are top 50 in double plays turned (47), fielding percentage (.975), shut-outs pitched (5), stolen bases (74 in 94 attempts) and triples (15).

They are top 75 in ERA (4.07) (especially significant considering we had to replace 4 out of our top 6 pitchers from last year, in terms of innings pitched), sacrifice bunts (37) and WHIP (walks plus hits per inning pitched) (1.34).

Finally, they are top 100 in sacrifice flies (22). The Golden Eagles are, essentially, ranked in the top 100 (out of 295) in each of the 17 distinct national ranking categories, including the top 25 in eight categories, and top 50 in 5 more. USM is also ranked 1st in the conference in most of those categories.


THE 2017 REGULAR SEASON: INDIVIDUAL ACCOMPLISHMENTS.

Not surprisingly, many individual Golden Eagles have also excelled nationally. As of last week, the Golden Eagles had 14 different players ranked in at least one category in the national rankings, led by Dylan Burdeaux (nationally-ranked in 12 categories), Taylor Braley (9), Matt Wallner (9), Kirk McCarty (8), Mason Irby (7), and Hunter Slater (6). Among Golden Eagle hitters, every player who has started more than half of USM's games is nationally-ranked in at least 2 categories.

Most notably, Burdeaux is 1st in the country in hits (96), Braley is 4th in the country in walks drawn and Burdeaux is top 10 in RBIs (66) and runs scored (61). Braley is in the top 20 in on-base percentage (.479), Wallner is top 20 in the country and second among freshmen in slugging percentage (.680) and Burdeaux is top 20 in doubles (22). Wallner is also in the top 25 in the country and leads all freshmen in homers (17). Finally, although this is not a tracked category, it is a significant indicator of the Golden Eagles' offensive prowess: Burdeaux leads the country in at bats by a significant margin, with 261 (and he's gotten on base 34 more times via BB or HBP).

As a result of their individual efforts, Nick Sandlin was named to one of 40 spots on the Midseason Watch List for the 13th annual National Collegiate Baseball Writers Association Stopper of the Year Award. Burdeaux has been named one of 25 semifinalists for the Dick Howser Trophy, given to the top player in college baseball. Burdeaux, Braley and Wallner have been named as three of the five finalists for the C Spire Ferriss Trophy, given to the Most Outstanding college baseball player in Mississippi each year. Wallner has been invited to attend the USA Baseball Collegiate National Team training camp this summer. More individual awards and recognitions will follow.


THE 2017 GOLDEN EAGLES: HOW GOOD ARE THEY?

Simply put, this Southern Miss Baseball team has enjoyed the best regular season ever by the Golden Eagles. Their 44 wins shatter the former regular season record of 41 (set in 2003), and their 25 conference wins top their former record of 23 (2003), tying the conference record (set by ECU in 2004). While the Golden Eagles have had more imposing pitching staffs, and somewhat tidier defenses, both the pitching and defense rank among the Golden Eagles' best ever, as set out above.

And consider the Golden Eagles offense. Based on pure numbers and national rankings as set out above, and a couple of unique circumstances, there is a strong argument that this is the best Golden Eagles' offense ever, edging out those great teams of 1994, '97, 2003-06, and 2010.

(A useful tool for additional comparison, besides the yearly national rankings, are the national averages for those past seasons: http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/stats/baseball_RB/reports/TrendsYBY.pdf.).

All 14 Golden Eagles who have batted this season have at least one home run. Twelve of them have two or more. Four of them have ten or more. The Golden Eagles' shortstop and season-long #9 hitter, LeMarcus Boyd, has 39 RBIs. He's not stealing RBIs from the top of the order either, because Dylan Burdeaux is in the top 10 in the country with 66 RBIs leading off for the Eagles. And for the first time since Hill Denson took over the Eagles and had to find a way to manufacture runs from 1984 through 1997, the 2017 Golden Eagles are nationally-ranked in stolen bases. As observed above, that all adds up to the No. 1 scoring margin in the country, as the Golden Eagles on average win all games by 4.1 runs.

That poses the big question: could this be the best Southern Miss Baseball team ever? Through 56 games, it clearly was.

The numbers put up by the Golden Eagles are reflected in the baseball computer rankings. In the most publicized computer rankings, the Golden Eagles are now 3rd (Nolan's NPI), 4th (ELO Chess, Nolan), and 8th (Boyd's ISR) in the nation. The Eagles are also 6th in Massey's ratings (which credit USM with an extra win for some reason), and 7th in the (last week's) Sagarin ratings.

In the faulty but all-important RPI, Southern Miss has rocketed up to 10th from 34th over the last four weeks, according to Warren Nolan and Boyd's World.

Following last week's 3-0 week, running their winning streak to 10 and clinching the C-USA title, the Golden Eagles moved up a few places in the major polls. Their ranking rose from 21 to 17 in the Collegiate Baseball Top 30, from 19 to 18 in the Baseball America Top 25, from 21 to 17 in the National Collegiate Baseball Writers Association Top 30, from 21 to 17 in the USA TODAY Sports baseball coaches Top 25, and from 22 to 15 in the d1baseball.com Top 25. In sum, USM moved up about 4 spots, from an average ranking of about 21 to about 17, after last week.

After the 4-0 week just concluded, all away from home, the Golden Eagles look to take another major step up in the polls on Monday. How high?

I would argue that, based on their season, and their current form, the Golden Eagles should be ranked in the top ten. Of course, polls can be overly static, as pollsters often decline to move a deserving team over another team, unless the higher-ranked team has a poor week. Happily for Southern Miss, several higher-ranked teams suffered poor weeks this week. USM won't and probably shouldn't get moved over Louisville (0-3 week). It would be justifiable not to demote Kentucky for losing a series at Florida. The Golden Eagles should, however, be moved above Miss.State (1-3), Missouri State (1-1, bad loss), Clemson (2-2) and Kent State (1-2). The Golden Eagles should also be moved up over Long Beach State (RPI 21), which appears to be somewhat overrated by the pollsters.

In sum, the Golden Eagles should move up about 5 places, on average, to an average ranking of about 12th. In the polls preceding and following the 2009 College World Series, USM was ranked 8th by Collegiate Baseball. But their rankings tomorrow should close in on what would appear to have been the highest previous regular season ranking for the Eagles, 11th during the 2004 season. In sum, this has been one of the greatest regular seasons in the history of Southern Miss Athletics.

 

[The Original BigGold]

THE DEVIL'S ADVOCATE: STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE.

Are the Golden Eagles' statistics inflated due to inferior competition? If so, only slightly. The Golden Eagles' strength of schedule is variously rated 67th by Warren Nolan, 79th by the NCAA and 84th by Boyd's World, out of 295 Division 1 baseball programs.

The Golden Eagles have played (and have 17 wins over) some nine teams that are considered "in" or on the bubble for this year's NCAA regionals. The Golden Eagles' 22 wins against teams currently in the top 100 of the RPI are the 10th most in the country.

Finally, C-USA is ranked very respectably as the 6th or 7th toughest conference (out of 31), ahead of the Big Ten and the Sun Belt, among others, and nearly-even or ahead of the Big West. This is evidenced by the consensus that USM, Louisiana Tech and ODU are currently considered "in" the tournament, and Florida Atlantic, Charlotte and Florida International are or have been on "the bubble" to earn regional invitations in recent weeks. Rice, which started 13-25 and 4-11 in C-USA, after losing 2 of 3 to USM in mid-April, stormed back to 27-28 and 16-13, before losing its final conference yesterday. Still, that run has improved its RPI to 60 (against the 11th-toughest schedule in the country), so that Rice has been mentioned as a possible NCAA-tournament team, and should not be counted out at the C-USA Tournament in Biloxi next week.

 

[The Original BigGold]

A POST-SEASON FULL OF PROMISE.

What does all this augur for the post-season this year? It means, first, that barring an 0-2 C-USA tournament, Southern Miss is a lock to host its second-ever NCAA regional. Once is a fluke (and we were a second seed at that); twice is nice. Hosting one of the 16 regionals, of course, gives an intentional advantage to the host team, which is presumed to be one of the 16 best teams in the country. Second, it means that the Golden Eagles have two tangible things to play for next week: a C-USA Tournament Championship to go with the C-USA Regular Season Championship, and a potential designation, for the very first time, as one of the eight National Seeds in the NCAA Tournament. Again, those teams are presumed to be the best eight in the country, most deserving of a shot at Omaha, and are therefore awarded the right to host a Super Regional, should they survive their regional. In other words, it means the Golden Eagles have a chance to do everything they can to ease their return to Omaha this summer.

WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR THE GOLDEN EAGLE FAITHFUL?

Why is the 2017 season so poignant for fans of Southern Miss Baseball? Recent history.

The Golden Eagles made their first College World Series appearance in 2009, after winning their first ever super regional, following their seventh consecutive trip to the NCAA regionals. After the 2009 season, USM extended its regional appearance streak to eight and nine in 2010 and 2011. Even more impressively, USM's first CWS appearance in 2009 led directly to the Golden Eagles signing a recruiting class ranked as high as third in the nation during the 2010-2011 recruiting period (http://www.southernmiss.com/sports/m-basebl/spec-rel/102011aab.html). But some of those players didn't work out. As a result of that, other deficiencies, and an unusual run of bad luck (remember this is baseball: luck is a thing), the Golden Eagles suffered through a series of heartbreaking disappointments from the 2012 through the 2015 seasons, and even last year.

In 2012, the first shock was a mediocre 30-23 regular season. That disappointment was followed by a positive 2-1 record in the C-USA tournament, in which the Golden Eagles won their last two games (including the third game 4-2 over #4-ranked Rice). But the weird pool play format then in use for the C-USA Tournament prevented USM from advancing to the Championship Game, and they missed out on the NCAA regionals for the first time in ten years.

In 2013, however, the pool play format almost helped the Golden Eagles salvage an even worse regular season (27-25). Despite losing 8-7 in the final pool game to ECU, USM qualified for the C-USA Championship game versus top seed Rice. A win in that game would have put the Golden Eagles back into the NCAA regionals after their embarrassing absence in 2012. Rice took an early 3-0 lead, but USM battled back in the middle innings to go ahead 4-3. But even that comeback was frustrating, as USM had a player thrown out at home for the second out of the 4th, followed by a double, costing the Eagles at least one run. Then the Golden Eagles controversially walked the bases loaded in the bottom of the 7th, and a sacrifice fly brought in a run, so Rice was able to tie the game without needing a hit. The 8th was scoreless, after Nick Johnson came on in relief with 2 on and 1 out, and induced Rice to hit into a double play. The 9th was scoreless and without drama (unless, as I seem to remember, Bradley Roney just missed getting a dinger in the top of the 9th). USM put two on with two out in the 10th, but stranded them. The bottom of the 10 and top of the 11th went three up, three down. The bottom of the 11th started fairly well for the Eagles, with Johnson posting two ground ball outs around a hit batsman. Then a hit through the right side of the infield set the stage. And Rice's no. 3 hitter, hitless until then, pulled a liner just over the glove of the USM second baseman, to take the first 11-inning Championship Game in C-USA Tournament history. Rice received the automatic NCAA bid that went with the title, and the Golden Eagles heartbreakingly stayed home for the second year in a row.

In 2014, the Golden Eagles suffered through another mediocre (32-23) regular season, before hosting the C-USA Tournament. A loss to ECU in the opening game, on 3 walks in the top of the 11th, put USM in the losers' bracket. But they won three in a row there, the third win Saturday afternoon against UTSA to force a final winner-take-all game in their bracket Saturday night. Unfortunately, they couldn't beat UTSA twice that day, losing 7-0, and missed the NCAA regionals for a depressing third season in a row.

The 2015 season may have been the most disappointing of all. After limping into the second half of the season at a mediocre 22-16-1 clip, the Golden Eagles rebounded to win the last 13 games of the regular season, including non-conference wins over Alabama, South Alabama and Tulane, to finish 35-16-1. That run by the Golden Eagles improved their RPI from 81 to a solidly-on-the-bubble 47, putting them in position to make a run at an at-large bid to the NCAA regionals in the C-USA Tournament at The Pete. However, the Golden Eagles were frustratingly shut out by a decent but beatable UAB 4-0 in the opening game, and were eliminated 5-4 by Florida Atlantic in their third game, after edging Old Dominion 2-0 in 12 innings in their second game. That 1-2 stumble dropped the Golden Eagles' RPI to 55, which might not have been fatal to their NCAA chances, considering the 13-game winning streak to end their season and their stronger showing in other computer ratings, except for the 3-year absence from the NCAAs preceding 2015.

Although the Golden Eagles finally returned to the NCAA regionals last year, the 2016 season also had its major disappointments. I speak, of course, of the fact that USM entered the last weekend of the regular season leading the league, and in position to host their second-ever NCAA regional. Then, on the road at a mediocre FIU team, the Eagles got swept. Result: no conference title, and no Hattiesburg regional. Southern Miss bounced back to win the C-USA Tournament Championship in dramatic fashion over Rice. But that accomplishment, while notable, was not quite enough to bring an NCAA regional back to Hattiesburg. Still, winning the C-USA Tournament Championship earned the Golden Eagles a(n unneeded automatic) bid back to the NCAA regionals for the first time in five years. The Golden Eagles were sent to Tallahassee as the no. 2 seed. There, an opening round win over South Alabama was followed by two tough losses to FSU and USA, and the Golden Eagles' 2016 season was over, but not without restoring hope to the Golden Eagle Nation.

This season could have been so very different. The 2016 Golden Eagles lost 15 players, including 13 seniors, and a junior to the draft. But the coaching staff was surprisingly optimistic after fall baseball, after seeing the returnees and newcomers together. So this 2017 team is not without its leaders, and remembered the lessons learned from last year's experience. With a C-USA Regular Season Championship in hand, they went on the road for the final weekend, got a sweep at UTSA, solidified their NCAA regional host chances, and put themselves in position to play for a National Seed.

So celebrate what has been one of the greatest regular seasons in the history of Southern Miss Athletics--in any sport. And get out there and support your Golden Eagles next week in Biloxi, and in the week(s) following in Hattiesburg (fingers crossed) and wherever their bats, arms, gloves, feet and hearts may take them.

 

[Houston Eagle]

Well said sir. My hope and expectation is that USM must win the conference tournament. By doing such it will not only secure a host for a regional but perhaps even a national seed.
Hosting in 2003 was something really special, and keep in mind that PTP didn't quite have all of the cool features now back then. One thing that will always stick out in my mind was arriving on campus on a Sunday, when everything is usually dead and abandoned. You could usually walk all over campus and not even see another person. But on that Sunday you would have thought there was a football game on campus. There was no parking to be found from PTP to Reed Green to frat row, etc. Hosting would mean a lot to the university.

*One thing that continues to stick in my crawl is how extremely poorly the conference did this year in scheduling a TV game. There have been ZERO games on TV. I have not yet gotten an answer on who dropped the ball. I even joked(and was little serious about how Cox and Co had to broadcast the UTSA game from the tops of their suitcases using a weedeater cord).I have waiting to take my son to BWWs to watch a game and haven't been able. I did promise him a trip next Sunday. The BWWs is also next to a Game Stop which also helps. I certainly hope that the Eagles will get the national attention they deserve.