Sun Belt (4 bids)
SAFELY IN: Coastal CarolinaON THE BUBBLE (IN): Southern Miss, Louisiana, James Madison
ON THE BUBBLE (OUT): Troy, Old Dominion
One change from last week: James Madison joins our field, making the Sun Belt a four-bid league.
The Dukes bolstered their case by sweeping Georgia Southern to improve to 10-8 in the conference, and they remain in strong RPI shape at No. 27. The biggest knock on JMU is that they have lost series against the best teams they’ve played (Arkansas, Coastal Carolina, ODU along with a series loss to Texas State), but they have not been swept, and they’re still getting a major RPI boost from that opening-weekend trip to Arkansas. If they can finish with a winning record in conference and stay in the top five of the standings, we like their chances.
Southern Miss is in decent shape at 11-7 in the SBC and No. 46 in the RPI, along with a 5-4 record against Q1. That RPI is still in bubble territory, but USM’s combination of metrics puts it well ahead of other bubble-in teams right now. The next two weeks will largely determine USM’s at-large fate: at Louisiana, vs. Coastal Carolina. Those series should offer RPI boosts, but the Golden Eagles need to go at least 3-3 in those two weekends to keep themselves in at-large position.
Louisiana is a tricky case. The Cajuns continue to dominate the Sun Belt with a 15-3 conference record, four games clear of the three-way tie for second between Coastal, USM and Troy. When we assembled our field on Tuesday, the Cajuns were in the mid-40s in the RPI, which made them a no-brainer at-large team. But a bad loss Wednesday against Houston Christian caused Louisiana to tumble 15 spots back to No. 60 in the RPI, illustrating the RPI pitfalls that must be avoided down the stretch. Here’s a case where the DSR feels like a far better illustration of the caliber of UL’s season: the Cajuns rank 25th in that metric. There’s still time for Louisiana to climb back into the top 50 of the RPI, but its RPI is likely to finish in a very bubble-ish place regardless. Here’s hoping the committee looks deeper than the RPI and rewards the Cajuns for their dominance of the league, should it continue.
Troy and Old Dominion are both on the radar as well, but both have work to do. Troy is tied for second at 11-7 in the league, but its RPI is down at No. 71. If the Trojans can win their marquee road series at Coastal Carolina this weekend, they should make a big leap. Then they’ll have another stiff test (and another big opportunity) with a home series vs. Louisiana. Those two weekends will determine whether or not they can jump into at-large position in the RPI. ODU is stronger in the RPI (No. 56) but weaker in the standings (9-9), so the Monarchs just need to keep on winning and pass some other teams in the standings.
