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D1 Baseball Postseason Stock Report Week 11: Sunbelt Teams

Sun Belt (4 bids)

SAFELY IN: Coastal Carolina

ON THE BUBBLE (IN): Southern Miss, Louisiana, James Madison

ON THE BUBBLE (OUT): Troy, Old Dominion

One change from last week: James Madison joins our field, making the Sun Belt a four-bid league.

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The Dukes bolstered their case by sweeping Georgia Southern to improve to 10-8 in the conference, and they remain in strong RPI shape at No. 27. The biggest knock on JMU is that they have lost series against the best teams they’ve played (Arkansas, Coastal Carolina, ODU along with a series loss to Texas State), but they have not been swept, and they’re still getting a major RPI boost from that opening-weekend trip to Arkansas. If they can finish with a winning record in conference and stay in the top five of the standings, we like their chances.

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Southern Miss is in decent shape at 11-7 in the SBC and No. 46 in the RPI, along with a 5-4 record against Q1. That RPI is still in bubble territory, but USM’s combination of metrics puts it well ahead of other bubble-in teams right now. The next two weeks will largely determine USM’s at-large fate: at Louisiana, vs. Coastal Carolina. Those series should offer RPI boosts, but the Golden Eagles need to go at least 3-3 in those two weekends to keep themselves in at-large position.

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Louisiana is a tricky case. The Cajuns continue to dominate the Sun Belt with a 15-3 conference record, four games clear of the three-way tie for second between Coastal, USM and Troy. When we assembled our field on Tuesday, the Cajuns were in the mid-40s in the RPI, which made them a no-brainer at-large team. But a bad loss Wednesday against Houston Christian caused Louisiana to tumble 15 spots back to No. 60 in the RPI, illustrating the RPI pitfalls that must be avoided down the stretch. Here’s a case where the DSR feels like a far better illustration of the caliber of UL’s season: the Cajuns rank 25th in that metric. There’s still time for Louisiana to climb back into the top 50 of the RPI, but its RPI is likely to finish in a very bubble-ish place regardless. Here’s hoping the committee looks deeper than the RPI and rewards the Cajuns for their dominance of the league, should it continue.

troy logo

old dominion logo

Troy and Old Dominion are both on the radar as well, but both have work to do. Troy is tied for second at 11-7 in the league, but its RPI is down at No. 71. If the Trojans can win their marquee road series at Coastal Carolina this weekend, they should make a big leap. Then they’ll have another stiff test (and another big opportunity) with a home series vs. Louisiana. Those two weekends will determine whether or not they can jump into at-large position in the RPI. ODU is stronger in the RPI (No. 56) but weaker in the standings (9-9), so the Monarchs just need to keep on winning and pass some other teams in the standings.

D1 Baseball - Etheridge: Two Sun Belt rivals battle to final pitch…again

Etheridge: Two Sun Belt rivals battle until final pitch ... again • D1Baseball

Southern Miss and Lousiana have exchanged 3-2 victories in Lafayette this weekend. We look back at Saturday and ahead for what's next for each squad.
d1baseball.com​

Etheridge: Two Sun Belt rivals battle until final pitch … again​

AT THE BALLPARK Mark Etheridge - April 28, 2024

LAFAYETTE, La – For the second consecutive game, Southern Miss took a 2-0 lead into the eighth inning. Friday evening, Louisiana star shortstop Kyle DeBarge slugged a three-run home run to give the Sun Belt leading Ragin’ Cajuns the victory.

Saturday at Tigue Moore Field in front of over 4,000 fans, fans may have felt they were watching actors recreate the prior night’s game. USM took that familiar two-run lead into the eighth, and DeBarge strode to the plate with two men on.

However, instead of a long home run into the wind, the star shortstop ripped a two-RBI single to tie the game. Going off script, the tying runs were all UL got as the game moved to the ninth.

This time, however, Southern Miss got a clutch hit from nine-hole batter Gabe Broadus to lift the Golden Eagles to a 3-2 win and even the Sun Belt series heading into Sunday’s finale.

“It was a great baseball game,” Louisiana head coach Matt Deggs said. “It was a good scrap all the way around.”

“Another big boy baseball game,” added Southern Miss head coach Christian Ostrander. “It was a heavyweight fight.”

The parallels to the first game were unmistakable. Southern Miss grabbed an early lead, and DeBarge came through with a clutch eighth-inning hit to erase the lead. Both squads also received strong pitching.

In a sport where the hitters often have the upper hand, this series – or at least the first couple of games of it – have been a throwback to when runs came at a premium and pitchers were the stars of the game.

Louisiana freshman lefthander Chase Morgan allowed seven hits and two runs in six innings. He struck out six and walked one. Jack Martinez worked two perfect relief innings.

“Chase Morgan did a really good job in the zone for us holding them to two,” said Deggs. “He battled some command issues at times but always seemed to bounce back.”

LP Langevin, who has been one of the best relievers in the Sun Belt, allowed the ninth-inning run. He hit Matthew Russo with a pitch to lead off the inning. Freshman catcher Lawson Odom sacrifice bunted pinch runner Eli Collins to second base. Broadus then ripped his RBI single back through the box into center field to score Collins.

It is unfortunate we hit the kid,” said Deggs. “Then they execute a bunt. And then one of the rare hits you’ll see off LP. Credit to them.”

After Louisiana tied the game on DeBarge’s RBI hit, it had a chance to continue the rally, but Davis Gillespie caught Lee Amadee’s line drive in left field, which ended the threat.

“We had a chance to get it done in the eighth,” Deggs said. “DeBarge tied it up. We had a chance on the next pitch. It’s just a line drive right at the left fielder. We got our opportunity right there. We’ve got to do a better job of putting the ball in play.”

On the Southern Miss side of the mound, the Golden Eagles received a strong start from Niko Mazza. The righty held UL to three hits in seven scoreless frames. He struck out three and walked one.

“I thought he was really good,” Ostrander said. “He was effectively wild in some respects. They had a hard time catching up to that fastball up in the zone. He had enough command with his offspeed to keep them in between.”

For Mazza, now 6-3 with a 4.25 ERA in 11 starts, this was his second consecutive quality start after a brutal outing at Georgia State.

“Mazza was outstanding,” said Deggs. “He was able to dot up three or four pitches. It wasn’t a one-time thing. He commanded that thing from the jump. We just never could find the barrel.”

Mazza retired the last eight batters he faced, finishing strong and commanding his mid-90s fastball, change, and breaking balls.

“Self-inflicted wounds have been the problem in those starts that weren’t great,” Ostrander said of Mazza. “I think today he made them earn it. His stuff is good enough, If he fills it up with his stuff, he’s got a chance to be successful.”

Despite trailing Louisiana by four games in the standings, Southern Miss enters Sunday at #45 in the RPI, while the Ragin’ Cajuns are at #55. The Sun Belt is currently the fifth-rated RPI conference behind the SEC, ACC, Big 12, and Big Ten and ahead of the Big East and Pac-12.

The Golden Eagles are 27-16 overall and 12-8 in conference, with series win over Indiana State, Missouri State, and at Louisiana Tech in pre-conference weekends and a midweek victory over Alabama. The worst loss is to 15-26 Marist.

USM hosts Coastal Carolina next weekend in another huge series. They visit Arkansas State and finish the year at home against Texas State.

Louisiana’s resume is highlighted by a sixteen-game winning streak and gaudy conference mark. The best wins are a midweek victory over Louisiana Tech, one road win at Coastal Carolina (lost the series) and three game sweeps of Old Dominion and at Texas State. Winning the Sun Belt regular season title would offset some RPI woes for the Cajuns.

Contributing to their RPI woes are bad losses to 17-25 Rice (twice) and 15-27 Houston Christian.

With trips to Troy and Georgia Southern before finishing at home against South Alabama, the Ragin’ Cajuns can hang onto the three-game lead over Troy with a strong finish.

Tigue Moore Field will be the site of a monster rubber game on Sunday. If it is anything like the first two, the stadium will be packed, the game will be well-pitched, and it won’t be decided until the final pitch.

“There’s a lot of baseball left and we know we are going to have to go earn everything,” said Ostrander. “We have to stay together, and that’s what this team is doing. They are uniting and playing hard as they can and that’s all you can do

Scripps picks Southern Miss as home for Community Journalism Center

This was announced yesterday. Pretty big deal for USM’s School of Media and Communications. The main home for the Community Journalism Center will on the Hattiesburg campus with satellite locations on the Gulf Coast campus and at Mississippi Public Broadcasting in Jackson.

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